by Roger Warne
There is steep competition, but Margot Robbie and Lee Smith lead the way for OZ.
Robbie has joined the illustrious group of Australian women to be nominated for Best Actress. And she has a real chance to join the likes of Cate Blanchett and Nicole Kidman of being one of a select few Aussie women to hoist the gold statuette named after film pioneer, Margaret Herrick’s uncle Oscar.
When I stated above that the competition is steep, I was serious. Margot’s portrayal of the infamous triple axel wielding American figure skater, Tonya Harding in, I Tonya, is outstanding. Not that she had any legitimacy issues as an actress before, but this role really shows her acting chops. It is an Oscar-worthy performance.
One reviewer from The Guardian described Margot Robbie’s performance as a tour-de-force tornado that balances finely nuanced character development with impressively punchy physicality. It’s darkly satirical.
The only problem is that she is up against Meryl Streep for her role in The Post, Saoirse Ronan for Lady Bird, Frances McDormand in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, and Sally Hawkins for the Guillermo del Toro masterpiece, The Shape of Water.
You might think that Sally would be Margot’s biggest competition. The Shape of Water is up for a total of 13 Academy Awards, including best picture, best director, best actress, best supporting actress, best supporting actor, best original screenplay, best cinematography, best costume design, and best original score. But it’s not the case.
The odds-on favorite to walk away as queen of the Silver Screen in 2018 is actually Frances McDormand at 1.08 (odds of 1/12). Next in line in the eyes of Las Vegas and international powerhouses like William Hill when we check the odds, is the Irish-American, Saoirse Ronan at 10.00 (9/1). Next on the list of probability is the Brit, Sally Hawkins at 15.00 (14/1). Then, Margot Robbie at 17.00 (16/1) and the longshot bringing up the rear is at 51.00 (50/1), Meryl Streep.
One great thing is that like The Shape of Water, I, Tonya also has the supporting actress up for an Academy Award as well. This is traditionally a pretty good indicator that you’re in the mix.
Lee Smith is actually the clear favorite for Best Editing for the World War 2 epic, Dunkirk. At 1.40, Smith is miles ahead of The Shape of Water, I, Tonya, and Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri. Baby Driver is a fairly distant second at 2.75.
Something that should give us all a bit of faith that another little gold statue will be coming to Australia is that according to Gold Derby, 24 out of 25 Oscars experts are backing Dunkirk and Lee Smith to walk away with the Best Film Editing Oscar. This goes beyond the betting odds themselves … or could be one of the reasons why the odds are so one sided.
As we move closer to March 4th, make sure to check William Hill to see if the probabilities have shifted at all. Just find the dropdown “TV/Specials” at the top of the page and then pick the Academy Awards category that you wish to see the odds for!
There is a lot of talent in this year’s Oscars pool and it is going to be a great event, regardless of who wins. Margot has some stiff competition, but hopefully, just like Tonya Harding, she’ll bull her way through the competition – we hope that she doesn’t kneecap any of the other ladies though… that would be far too method.
