by Kevin Samson
The cybersecurity landscape is approaching a critical turning point. Quantum computers, once confined to research labs and science fiction, are rapidly advancing toward the capability to break encryption methods that protect everything from state secrets to credit card transactions. For IT leaders and security professionals, understanding this threat isn’t just academic—it’s essential for protecting organisational assets in the coming decade. The clock is ticking, and preparation must begin now.
Current Encryption Landscape and Industry Dependencies
Today’s digital economy runs on encryption. Every online transaction, secure communication, and protected file relies on mathematical problems that current computers can’t solve in reasonable timeframes. From financial institutions processing millions of transactions to online platforms like NV Casino securing player data, modern encryption forms the backbone of digital trust.
The most common encryption methods—RSA, ECC, and AES—have served us well for decades. These algorithms protect an estimated $10 trillion in daily financial transactions and secure communications for billions of users worldwide. However, their strength relies on the computational limitations of classical computers, limitations that quantum computers are designed to overcome.
Industries heavily dependent on current encryption:
- Financial services and banking;
- Healthcare and medical records;
- Government and military communications;
- E-commerce and online gaming platforms;
- Cloud storage and SaaS providers;
- Telecommunications networks.
Understanding Quantum Computing Capabilities
Quantum computers operate on fundamentally different principles from classical computers. Instead of processing information in binary bits (0s and 1s), they use quantum bits or “qubits” that can exist in multiple states simultaneously. This quantum superposition, combined with entanglement, gives quantum computers the potential to solve certain problems exponentially faster.
For encryption, the threat comes from specific quantum algorithms. Shor’s algorithm, developed in 1994, can factor large numbers and compute discrete logarithms—the very problems that RSA and ECC encryption rely on for security. While current quantum computers remain too small and error-prone to run Shor’s algorithm effectively, progress is accelerating.
Key quantum advantages for breaking encryption:
- Parallel processing of multiple solutions simultaneously;
- Exponential speedup for integer factorisation;
- Efficient solving of discrete logarithm problems;
- Ability to search unsorted databases quadratically faster;
- Enhanced optimisation problem solving.
Timeline for Quantum Threats
Predicting when quantum computers will pose a real threat to encryption requires analysing current progress and technical hurdles. Most experts agree we’re in a race against time, with different encryption methods facing varied timelines for vulnerability.
Recent surveys of quantum computing experts suggest a 50% probability of breaking RSA-2048 encryption by 2035. However, “harvest now, decrypt later” attacks mean sensitive data encrypted today could be vulnerable when quantum computers mature, making immediate action necessary.
| Encryption Type | Bits/Key Size | Threat Timeline | Confidence Level |
| RSA-2048 | 2048 bits | 2030-2035 | High |
| ECC-256 | 256 bits | 2028-2033 | High |
| AES-128 | 128 bits | 2040+ | Medium |
| SHA-256 | 256 bits | 2045+ | Low |
| 3DES | 168 bits | Already vulnerable | Very High |
Vulnerable Encryption Methods
Not all encryption faces equal risk from quantum computing. Asymmetric encryption methods, which use different keys for encryption and decryption, are particularly vulnerable. These include the public key systems that secure most internet communications.
Symmetric encryption like AES remains relatively secure, though key sizes may need doubling to maintain equivalent security. Hash functions also show resilience, though quantum computers could still accelerate certain attacks.
Encryption methods ranked by quantum vulnerability:
- Critical risk: RSA, ECC, DSA, Diffie-Hellman.
- Moderate risk: Small key AES, weak hash functions.
- Lower risk: AES-256, SHA-384/512, properly implemented symmetric encryption.
Quantum-Resistant Solutions
The cybersecurity community isn’t waiting idly for quantum threats to materialise. Post-quantum cryptography (PQC) algorithms are being developed and standardised to resist both classical and quantum attacks. NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology) recently announced the first group of quantum-resistant algorithms for standardisation.
These new algorithms rely on different mathematical problems believed to be difficult even for quantum computers. Lattice-based cryptography, hash-based signatures, and code-based encryption represent the most promising approaches.
NIST-selected post-quantum algorithms:
- CRYSTALS-Kyber – For general encryption;
- CRYSTALS-Dilithium – For digital signatures;
- FALCON – Compact digital signatures;
- SPHINCS+ – Hash-based signatures;
- Additional algorithms under consideration.
Action Plan for Organisations
Transitioning to quantum-resistant security requires careful planning and phased implementation. Organisations should begin with a comprehensive cryptographic inventory to understand their current exposure and dependencies.
Migration to post-quantum cryptography won’t happen overnight. Systems must maintain backward compatibility while gradually introducing quantum-resistant methods. This “crypto-agility” allows organisations to adapt as standards evolve and threats materialise.
| Phase | Timeline | Key Actions |
| Assessment | Now-2025 | Inventory systems, identify critical data |
| Planning | 2025-2027 | Develop migration strategy, test PQC |
| Early Migration | 2027-2030 | Deploy hybrid systems, update critical infrastructure |
| Full Transition | 2030-2035 | Complete PQC adoption, retire vulnerable systems |
| Maintenance | 2035+ | Monitor threats, update as needed |
Essential preparation steps:
- Create a comprehensive encryption inventory.
- Classify data by sensitivity and longevity.
- Implement crypto-agility in new systems.
- Begin testing post-quantum algorithms.
- Develop vendor management strategies.
- Train security teams on quantum threats.
- Establish monitoring for quantum computing advances.
Securing Your Future Against Quantum Threats
The quantum threat to encryption is real, approaching, and demands immediate attention from cybersecurity leaders. While full-scale quantum computers capable of breaking current encryption may still be years away, the time to prepare is now. Organisations that begin planning today will be best positioned to protect their assets when quantum computers become a practical threat. Start by assessing your current encryption dependencies, exploring post-quantum solutions, and building crypto-agility into your infrastructure. The future of cybersecurity depends on the actions we take today.
Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay
