2025 Academy Awards Predictions

by Bijan Tehrani

As we approach the 2025 Academy Awards, I find myself particularly delighted by a selection of nominees that is notably stronger than last year, especially from an international perspective.

Still, the outcome is hard to predict: where award ceremonies such as the Golden Globes and various Critics Circle awards are voted for by the press, whose opinions are published and therefore public knowledge prior to awards season, the inner workings of the Oscars could be considered a bit of a Black Box.

Voting is undertaken by the Academy members themselves – filmmakers voting for themselves – taking into consideration a multitude of influencing factors that may or may not have something directly to do with the film itself.

Nonetheless, I’ve promised you some predictions for this year’s Oscars, and as such, predictions you shall get, all tainted, I admit, by my bias as an international filmmaker and journalist.

First, a special shout-out to Shirin Soheini and Hossein Molaei for the nomination of the beautifully crafted and meaningful animated short In the Shade of the Cypress and I sincerely hope it takes home the Oscar.

Now, on with the show…

Best Picture

The nominees for Best Picture include Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance, and Wicked. It is particularly noteworthy that I’m Still Here, a Brazilian political-social film that addresses the dark era of military dictatorship in Brazil, made the list. A Complete Unknown, which explores the life of Bob Dylan, is a beautifully made film, but I doubt either I’m Still Here or A Complete Unknown will take home the top prize, especially with the ambitious yet hollow Anora in the running.

Both Emilia Pérez, a well-crafted and entertaining musical, and Conclave, which delves into the political machinations within the Vatican during a papal election (though somewhat dull), are worth watching. It is surprising, however, that The Apprentice, the incredible and powerful film by Ali Abbasi, has been largely overlooked in this year’s nominations, perhaps due to its depiction of the Trump era and its intense portrayal of the man at its core.

Best Director

The Best Director nominees include: Sean Baker for Anora, Brady Corbet for The Brutalist, James Mangold for A Complete Unknown, Jacques Audiard for Emilia Pérez, and Coralie Fargeat for The Substance. Without a doubt, James Mangold stands out as the most deserving nominee. His narrative in A Complete Unknown transcends a mere historical retelling, instead offering a deep exploration of the artist’s soul.

Best Actor

The nominees for Best Actor are: Adrien Brody for The Brutalist, Timothée Chalamet for A Complete Unknown, Colman Domingo for Sing Sing, Ralph Fiennes for Conclave, and Sebastian Stan for The Apprentice. Sebastian Stan’s performance as the young Donald Trump in The Apprentice is nothing short of miraculous. He creates a fully believable character, capturing the essence of his subject’s transformation with great depth. While Chalamet also shines as Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown, I suspect that Adrien Brody may have the upper hand in winning, given the Academy’s collective preferences.

Best Actress

The Best Actress nominees are: Cynthia Erivo for Wicked, Carla Sofia Gascon for Emilia Pérez, Mikey Madison for Anora, Demi Moore for The Substance, and Fernanda Torres for I’m Still Here. I am rooting for Fernanda Torres, whose portrayal of a woman fighting to find her missing husband during a dangerous dictatorship is nothing short of extraordinary. Like her Golden Globe win, I hope she wins the Oscar as well. However, I have a feeling that Demi Moore, due to her relatively easier role in the more superficial The Substance, may ultimately take home the award.

Best Supporting Actor

The nominees for Best Supporting Actor are: Yura Borisov for Anora, Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain, Edward Norton for A Complete Unknown, Guy Pearce for The Brutalist, and Jeremy Strong for The Apprentice. Jeremy Strong’s portrayal of the shady lawyer Roy Cohn in The Apprentice is nothing short of astonishing. His performance, which tracks Cohn’s transformation and downfall, is one of the film’s standout features. However, I doubt he will win, despite the power of his performance.

Best Supporting Actress

The nominees for Best Supporting Actress are: Monica Barbaro for A Complete Unknown, Ariana Grande for Wicked, Felicity Jones for The Brutalist, Isabella Rossellini for Conclave, and Zoe Saldana for Emilia Pérez. Of this group, Isabella Rossellini is the most deserving, delivering a captivating performance in Conclave. Her nuanced portrayal adds significant depth to the film.

Best International Film

The nominees for Best International Film are: I’m Still Here (Brazil), The Girl with the Needle (Denmark), Emilia Pérez (France), The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany), and Flow (Lithuania). I’m Still Here is especially deserving, not only for its powerful portrayal of a political and social issue under a dictatorship but also for its simple yet effective cinematic style. Flow is another remarkable visual achievement, addressing pressing environmental issues through animation. Unfortunately, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, though directed by Rasulov, lacks the cohesive structure of his previous work. It’s surprising that Denmark, with its powerful film The Apprentice, has submitted a mediocre selection for the Oscars. My prediction is that Emilia Pérez will win this category.

Best Animated Feature

The nominees for Best Animated Feature are: Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, and The Wild Robot. Choosing a standout is difficult this year, as each nominee represents the peak of animated storytelling. However, Flow stands out for its profound use of animation to address environmental issues, all without a single line of dialogue throughout its 85-minute runtime. It also won at the Golden Globes, and I hope it secures the Oscar as well.

Best Original Screenplay

The nominees for Best Original Screenplay are: Anora, The Brutalist, A Real Pain, September 5, and The Substance. This list, unfortunately, reflects poor taste among the voters. Among them, The Brutalist is the only one with an acceptable screenplay, followed closely by A Real Pain.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The nominees for Best Adapted Screenplay are: A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, and Sing Sing. A Complete Unknown stands out as a faithful and insightful adaptation, capturing the hidden essence of its subject with precision and artistry.

Overall, the 2025 Academy Awards offer a compelling array of films and performances. While certain nominees stand out as more deserving than others, the diversity and quality of this year’s selections make for an exciting race.

The 2025 Academy Awards will take place on Monday 3 March 2025 from 11am [AEDT]