By Travis Johnson
Look, the Star Wars movies are no stranger to massive body counts, but they have a tendency to keep them kind of abstracted. You don’t see people’s faces boiling off when Alderaan gets destroyed, just as you don’t see Imperial Navy personnel impaled on girders or sucked out into the merciless vacuum when a Death Star (or, indeed, A Starkiller Base) gets blown up. The closest we’ve come to onscreen carnage is when Order 66 was executed in Revenge of the
Sith, and that was a) done in tasteful, tragic slow motion, and b) in a terrible movie so who cares?
Across the entire span of the Star Wars saga to date, only half a dozen major protagonists die onscreen : Ben Kenobi, Yoda, Han Solo, Padme Amidala, Mace Windu and Han Solo – and one of them died of old age. That’s less than one per film (ironically, it’s The Empire Strikes Back that doesn’t off anyone – axiomatically the darkest of the series). Rogue One, however, promises to be different. As a stand-alone entry into the Star Wars canon, it has no need to keep characters alive for future sequels (or does it? Read on…). Plus, its central conceit is basically “The Dirty Dozen in a Galaxy Far, Far Away”* – an idea that lends itself for a lot of pathos and redemption-through-death scenes.
So, who’s up for the chop? We’re just guessing here, but based on what we know so far, here are the odds of the various main characters making it to the end credits.
Jyn Erso (Felicity Jones)
Our fearless leader. Impetuous, combative, sergeant in the Rebel Alliance. Daughter of Galen Erso, designer of the Death Star, who we’ll be getting to in a bit. Given that Erso is our protagonist, we’re betting that she’s going to make it out in one piece, unless director Gareth Edwards and screenwriters Chris Weitz and Tony Gilroy are going for a Total Party Kill, which remains a remote possibility. Also worth factoring in: the unconfirmed rumours/weird wish fulfillment that she is Rey’s mother, which is almost certainly a fan theory that got out of hand. Still, you never know (but that would be a dumb thing to do, Lucasfilm).
Odds of survival: 90%
Cassian Andor (Diego Luna)
Rebellion intelligence officer and, judging from the amount of screen time he gets in the trailer, second lead.His fate is almost certainly tied to Jyn’s, in that if she dies, he will live (although see the TPK clause above) and vice versa. Given that we’ve put our money on Jyn living, he’s probably a goner – although if Jyn self-sacrifices, expect him to rally the troops in her name.
Odds of survival: 10%
K-2SO (Alan Tudyk)
Former Imperial Enforcer droid reprogrammed to serve the Rebellion by our man Cassian. There are three possible outcomes here: sacrifices self to save or avenge Cassian and the team, reverts to original programming and must be destroyed, or survives the death of his master, proving that even droids can mourn. Two out of three of those end in death, so…
Odds of survival: 33%
Chirrut Îmwe (Donnie Yen)
Blind force sensitive who somehow kicks more ass with a stick than any Jedi with a lightsaber we have ever seen. Let’s go meta here: you put Donnie Yen in a movie to fight people, and in a movie that features Darth Vader, well…
Seriously, if they don’t put Donnie Yen up against Vader, Disney should have to give Lucasfilm back. There’s a slim possibility they’re asleep at the wheel, which gives us…
Odds of survival: 10%
Baze Malbus (Jiang Wen)
Freelance assassin and the ranged fighter to compliment Donnie Yen’s melee guy. The kind of stoic professional who always dies in these things, quite possibly while laying down a barrage of fire to cover a retreat or, even more likely, avenge his fallen partner. It’s possible his pragmatism lets him live to fight another day, though.
Odds of survival: 30%
Bodhi Rook (Riz Ahmed)
Former Imperial pilot turned Rebel fighter. Dead man walking – there’s nothing very distinctive about this guy so far, and if anyone here has “cannon fodder” stenciled across their head in block caps, it’s him (sorry, Riz). Fun fact: in Buddhist thought, Bodhi is the final state of enlightenment which prefigures nirvana, which means stepping off the karmic wheel of reincarnation, which means:
Odds of survival: 0%
Saw Gerrera (Forest Whitaker)
Crusty old rebel leader with a stunningly cynical view on the odds of success and the fate of any who dare raise arms against the Empire. Either sacrifices himself, possibly dying in captivity and/or under torture (proving his allegiance to his ethos) or is one of the few survivors left to mourn the doomed heroes (proving he was right all along).
Odds of survival: 50%
Galen Erso (Madds Mikkelsen)
All concerns about instilling Jynn with the proper heroic motivation to carry out her mission aside, you simply don’t leave the designer of the Death Star walking around after the dust has settled and the smoke has cleared. There’s just no way.
Odds of survival: 0%
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story is in cinemas from December 15, 2016.
*Interestingly, what could be considered the first ever Expanded Universe story, which ran in Marvel’s Star Wars comic from issues #7 – #10, was a riff on The Magnificent Seven that saw Han Solo team up with a bunch of mercenaries to protect a small outpost from a horde of bandits.
